Источник:
http://leontribe.blogspot.com/2011/0...orce-user.html
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Last year I reviewed the
subscription numbers of Dynamics CRM and salesforce. At that time I came to a few conclusions:
- Your average Dynamics CRM customer has about 50% more subscribers than a salesforce customer
- Average company size for both is growing but appears to be tapering to 30 for salesforce and 50 for Dynamics CRM
- Subscriber growth continues to grow and the market has not yet matured
- Based on the subscriber and customer ratios, Dynamics CRM is catching up on salesforce
- Salesforce will make 3 million subscribers by October 2010 and Dynamics CRM will make 1.5 million subscribers by December 2010
If you saw my
“Microsoft Dynamics CRM vs Salesforce: The Main Event” presentation at Decisions Spring earlier this year, you will have also seen me predict:
- Subscriber difference appears to be tapering
- Subscriber ratio is heading towards 1.5
- “Dynamics CRM” is catching up on “salesforce.com” in Google trends
- Microsoft’s numbers will be buoyed by their international online rollout
Given Microsoft released some figures at the Worldwide Partner Conference and salesforce recently released figures as part of their second quarter results, I thought it was a good time to revisit. Unfortunately, with Microsoft only intermittently releasing numbers and salesforce confirming, in the
quarterly results call, this would be the last quarter where they release customer numbers, it will be difficult to do this kind of review in the future. However, as salesforce is diversifying outside of their stock ticker namesake (CRM), a direct comparison of numbers is becoming less relevant, unless we start bringing in the Microsoft ERP, CMS and BI solutions as well.
Customer Size
Here are the numbers for salesforce taken from the salesforce
detailed financials:
Year
Month
Subscribers
Customers
Average Company Size
2003 Q4
Dec-02
76,000
5,700
13
2004 Q1
Mar-03
85,000
6,300
13
2004 Q2
Jun-03
96,000
7,000
14
2004 Q3
Sep-03
107,000
7,700
14
2004 Q4
Dec-03
127,000
8,700
15
2005 Q1
Mar-04
147,000
9,800
15
2005 Q2
Jun-04
168,000
11,100
15
2005 Q3
Sep-04
195,000
12,500
16
2005 Q4
Dec-04
227,000
13,900
16
2006 Q1
Mar-05
267,000
15,500
17
2006 Q2
Jun-05
307,000
16,900
18
2006 Q3
Sep-05
347,000
18,700
19
2006 Q4
Dec-05
393,000
20,500
19
2007 Q1
Mar-06
438,000
22,700
19
2007 Q2
Jun-06
495,000
24,800
20
2007 Q3
Sep-06
556,000
27,100
21
2007 Q4
Dec-06
646,000
29,800
22
2008 Q1
Mar-07
742,900
32,300
23
2008 Q2
Jun-07
800,000
35,300
23
2008 Q3
Sep-07
952,500
38,100
25
2008 Q4
Dec-07
1,100,000
41,000
27
2009 Q1
Mar-08
1,177,200
43,600
27
2009 Q2
Jun-08
1,287,900
47,700
27
2009 Q3
Sep-08
1,398,600
51,800
27
2009 Q4
Dec-08
1,500,000
55,400
27
2010 Q1
Mar-09
1,660,400
59,300
28
2010 Q2
Jun-09
1,769,600
63,200
28
2010 Q3
Sep-09
2,000,000
67,900
29
2010 Q4
Dec-09
2,102,500
72,500
29
2011 Q1
Mar-10
2,319,000
77,300
30
2011 Q2
Jun-10
2,554,400
82,400
31
2011 Q3
Sep-10
2,790,400
87,200
32
2011 Q4
Dec-10
3,000,000
92,300
33
2012 Q1
Mar-11
3,321,800
97,700
34
2012 Q2
Jun-11
3,640,000
104,000
35
Here are the Dynamics CRM numbers:
Month
Subscribers
Customers
Average Company Size
Mar-06
150000
6000
25
Jul-06
200000
7000
29
Oct-06
250000
8000
31
May-07
400000
10000
40
Mar-08
500000
11000
45
Jul-09
1000000
20833
48
Apr-10
1100000
22000
50
Jul-10
1400000
23000
61
Apr-11
1700000
27000
63
Jul-11
2000000
30000
67
Numbers in red are my best guess, based on the known numbers. Essentially I have estimated the customer size and then used this to generate the subscriber size. I thought it was important to include my large tables of numbers, rather than just show the pretty graphs so others can see how I generated them and also slice and dice them as they see fit.
As can be seen, Dynamics CRM’s average customer is now almost double the size of the salesforce average customer. Graphing the company sizes, we see my previous thoughts that the sizes were tapering was unfounded, both are increasing and it appears Microsoft’s are growing a little faster as the ratio has now gone from 1.5 to 2.0.
Market Maturity
Here is the apples to apples combined data.
Month
SFDC Subscribers
SFDC Customers
MSFT Subscribers
MSFT Customers
Subscriber Ratio
Customer Ratio
Difference in Subscribers
Total Subscribers
Customer Size Ratio
Mar-06
267,000
15,500
150000
6000
1.78
2.58
117,000
417,000
1.5
Jul-06
315000
17500
200000
7000
1.58
2.50
115,000
515,000
1.6
Oct-06
366700
19300
250000
8000
1.47
2.41
116,700
616,700
1.6
May-07
482000
24100
400000
10000
1.21
2.41
82,000
882,000
2.0
Mar-08
742,900
32,300
500000
11000
1.49
2.94
242,900
1,242,900
2.0
Jul-09
1324809
49067
1000000
20833
1.32
2.36
324,809
2,324,809
1.8
Apr-10
1696800
60600
1100000
22000
1.54
2.75
596,800
2,796,800
1.8
Jul-10
1878243
64767
1400000
23000
1.34
2.82
478,243
3,278,243
2.1
Apr-11
2449000
79000
1700000
27000
1.44
2.93
749,000
4,149,000
2.0
Jul-11
3819600
106100
2000000
30000
1.91
3.54
1,819,600
5,819,600
1.9
In this case I have extrapolated the salesforce data to match the month the Dynamics CRM numbers were announced. So if the Dynamics CRM number was announced one month after a salesforce quarter announcement, I guess the SFDC customer number and then use the guessed average customer size to generate a subscriber number.
Total subscribers across both products know no bounds and both products continue to bring on subscribers.
It is fair to say this market is still far from maturing with no signs of populations tapering.
In terms of my previous predictions, the trending of Excel came through with the goods. Salesforce made three million subscribers somewhere between September 2010 and December 2010 (I predicted October 2010). Dynamics CRM made 1.5 million subscribers somewhere between July 2010 and April 2011 ). I predicted December 2010.
For my next set of predictions, I believe salesforce will make four million subscribers before the end of the year but after the Q3 results. Dynamics CRM will make 2.5 million subscribers before the end of the year and probably before November.
Is Dynamics CRM Catching Up?
So the big question is if Dynamics CRM is catching up on salesforce. The answer, unfortunately for those of us on the Microsoft side of the fence, is no. The boost in numbers from the international rollout has either not happened or has been insufficient. Here is the evidence.
The subscriber ratio (SFDC subscribers/MSFT subscribers) was dropping or, at least, was stable at just under 1.5 until the last quarter where salesforce has jumped away. The subscriber difference tells the same story. While there was a possible turning point in mid-2010, this appears to be an aberration with salesforce running away.
So what has happened? Has salesforce become really good and left Dynamics CRM in the dust? Is something else at play?
It is true that salesforce has been making a lot of acquisitions but, functionally, the differences in the Sales Cloud and Service Cloud products are more on the edges than at the core and equal on both sides. Salesforce has Chatter, Dynamics CRM is soon to have a Chatter equivalent but has SharePoint and Lync instead. Dynamics CRM has better Outlook integration but its browser client is limited to Internet Explorer (until early next year) and so on. This idea of equivalency is also confirmed by the
Gartner and Forrester reports which rate both products very highly.
My speculation is the reason the salesforce numbers have leaped is because of the mix of products that make up the totals. The salesforce numbers cover all their products, not just the Sales Cloud and Service Cloud products. They include Chatter, Jigsaw, Heroku, Radian6 and so on. I imagine it only includes paying Chatter clients but it is not clear. Unfortunately, with salesforce announcing they will not be regularly releasing customer figures any more, it is difficult to know.
As for popularity, Google Trends suggest Dynamics CRM is still catching up with salesforce in terms of search results.
This is a graph of the search popularity of “dynamics crm” and “salesforce.com”. As can be seen, the gap is narrowing.
Any Financial Insights?
I talked last week about my concerns for any company
selling ten dollar bills for nine dollars. Combining the finances with the subscription numbers we see something else of interest. Back in May I noticed that
subscribers are becoming increasingly less profitable for salesforce. Here is the graph.
Here I have taken the salesforce subscription numbers above and the financial numbers from the
detailed summary I used in last week’s blog. ‘PUPM’ stands for ‘per user per month’. So, in the case of ‘Revenue PUPM’, this is the revenue received by the average subscriber each month. In this case the number has tapered to around $50 and has been stable for the last 12 months. Revenue Cost is a figure salesforce use claiming it is the expenses directly related to the revenue, ignoring those inconvenient operating costs of sales and marketing and research and development. The revenue cost per subscriber per month is at around $10 and has been there for almost three years. Those pesky, expensive operating costs (sales and marketing, research and development and general and administrative costs) have hovered at around $40 per subscriber per month for about two years.
Doing the maths, the profit of a subscriber is $50 (revenue) – $10 (revenue cost) – $40 (operating cost) = $0 (profit). The variable for profitability appears to be the operating costs per subscriber. While it is hovering around $40 per subscriber per month, if this could be reduced, this would bring salesforce into profitability.
Conclusions
Both products are growing without obvious bounds and the market still appears to be growing for the two products. In terms of customer size, Microsoft CRM is penetrating the enterprise more effectively than salesforce products with the average Dynamics CRM customer size now being double the size of a salesforce customer.
In terms of catching up, it seems as if the range of salesforce products is getting away from Dynamics CRM, but that is ok. Without a clearer understanding of how the salesforce customer and subscription numbers are broken down, the comparison has only limited value. As for ‘front of mind’, Google Trends suggests Dynamics CRM is catching up on salesforce.
Finally, the financials for salesforce mean that they are not making money from their subscribers and the financials seem to be settling at around breakeven. Without reducing their operating costs, it is not clear how this situation will change.
Источник:
http://leontribe.blogspot.com/2011/0...orce-user.html